In the run-up to the New Year holidays, the foreign exchange market of Ukraine enters a period of traditional seasonal fluctuations. The key factor will remain the balance between the demand and supply of currency, which this year appears to be more controlled than before. This is reported by UNIAN.
As explained by the director of the financial markets and investment activities department of Globus Bank Taras Lesovyi, at the end of the year, hryvnia payments in the form of bonuses and awards traditionally push demand for currency. At the same time, some Ukrainians sell dollars and euros to finance holiday expenses. As a result, demand is forecasted to exceed supply by 10-15%, which does not create critical pressure on the exchange rate.
Dollar exchange rate on New Year 2026: banker’s forecast
According to Lesovyi, this year’s situation differs from previous years. The currency frenzy is noticeably weaker, inflation remains stable, and the National Bank of Ukraine sees no need to adjust its forecasts. It is expected that annual inflation will not exceed 10%, and rates from November to the end of December will demonstrate only moderate controlled growth.
The banker emphasized that the NBU will continue to restrain excess demand through currency interventions, maintaining relative balance and minimizing sharp fluctuations.
Dollar exchange rate on New Year 2026: expected indicators
According to the forecast for the period from December 22 to 28, the situation will look like this:
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dollar exchange rate corridor: 42.2-42.7 UAH on the interbank market and 42.3-42.8 UAH on the cash market;
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euro exchange rate corridor: 48-49.75 UAH both on the interbank market and in cash;
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daily fluctuations: up to 0.05-0.15 UAH on the interbank market, up to 0.1-0.2 UAH in banks, and up to 0.3 UAH in exchanges;
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difference between interbank and cash market: 0.1-0.15 UAH;
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weekly deviations: within 1-1.5%.
It was previously reported that on December 18, the dollar exchange rate at PrivatBank was 42.60 UAH, and the euro was 50.10 UAH. Meanwhile, the official NBU exchange rate as of December 19 was recorded at 42.34 UAH per dollar.
Let us remind you that analysts predict a weakening of the US dollar throughout 2026 due to the gap in the strategies of central banks, particularly the policy of the US Federal Reserve.