What Really Sparked the War in Ukraine? An Expert Weighs In
In a recent interview, Russia expert Stephen Sestanovich—a former U.S. ambassador-at-large for the former Soviet Union—analyzed the origins of the war in Ukraine. He argued that the conflict does not stem from some inherent Russian imperialism, but rather from a series of miscalculations by President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine, which he blamed on Western conspiracies. Sestanovich criticized Henry Kissinger’s policies and highlighted contradictions in U.S. policy toward Russia during the 1990s. He pointed to the 2004 Orange Revolution as one of Putin’s major failures, noting that the Russian leader had actively tried to destabilize Ukraine at the time.
Unreformed Security Services and Ukrainian Nationalism
Sestanovich noted that unreformed Soviet intelligence and security structures, particularly the KGB, continued to exist even after the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991. He recalled that Senator John McCain once remarked that
“in Putin’s eyes, you don’t see a soul—you see the letters KGB.”The expert also dismissed Putin’s 2021 article claiming that Ukrainians and Russians are one people as 'sheer delusion.' According to Sestanovich, this idea reflects Putin’s view of Ukrainian nationalism as a betrayal of the Russian family.
The interview also covered Putin’s direct involvement in Ukrainian affairs, specifically his active campaigning for Viktor Yanukovych in the 2004 presidential election. Sestanovich stated that the KGB’s explanation for the Orange Revolution was that it had been orchestrated by the CIA and George Soros. He added that
“if Putin hadn’t created this entire tangle of Ukrainian problems for himself, over time he might have been seen as a kind of Merkel for Russia.”
Sestanovich stressed that the war in Ukraine is an 'existential war with the West' and that Putin’s approach to the conflict reveals weakness, not strength. 'He has ruined his own brand now,' the expert said. He also expressed the view that Putin’s 2021 gamble, intended to strategically strengthen Russia, has led to catastrophic costs that may take decades to clean up. In this way, Sestanovich demonstrated that the war in Ukraine stems not only from external factors but also from Russia’s internal politics under Putin’s rule.
Sestanovich’s comments underscore the importance of understanding Russia’s internal political mechanisms to explain its external aggression. By highlighting Putin’s mistakes, the expert challenges traditional notions of Russian imperialism, suggesting that conflicts in Ukraine—including the Orange Revolution—result not just from external influences but also from internal political miscalculations. This insight carries significant implications for analyzing Russia’s future actions on the international stage and its relations with Western countries.
As the conflict continues to evolve, the implications of Putin's decisions have left Russia in a precarious situation. For a deeper understanding of how Putinism has led the country into a war with no viable exit strategy, explore our analysis on the entrapment of Russia in its current crisis.