Inflation forecast in Ukraine for 2026
Financial expert Oleksiy Kozyrev forecasts that the real inflation rate in Ukraine in 2026 will exceed the official forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine, which stands at 6.6%. According to Kozyrev, the optimistic scenario suggests inflation at 10-11%, while the pessimistic variant could lead to price increases of 11-13%. The main factors affecting inflation are:
- exchange rate;
- rising energy prices;
- administrative tariffs.
As of today, the dollar exchange rate is maintained within 41.50-42.50 hryvnias, while the euro rate has seen a significant increase — from 44 hryvnias to nearly 50 hryvnias. At the same time, producer prices in Ukraine rose by 5.4% just in November 2025, indicating a high level of volatility in the economy. Since 2007, prices in Ukraine have increased by 8.87 times, while the dollar exchange rate has risen by 8.37 times.
Volatility and its Consequences
Oleksiy Kozyrev notes that industrial inflation in Ukraine in 2025 is characterized by very high volatility, which may further complicate the situation. He believes that if the National Bank continues to maintain the official dollar exchange rate, this does not guarantee price stability.
'Unfortunately, I still think that the 6.6% official inflation that the National Bank forecasts for 2026 will not happen,' said Oleksiy Kozyrev.
Kozyrev also emphasizes that even if an investor buys dollars, this does not guarantee that they will be able to offset price increases. Thus, the real economic conditions in Ukraine may significantly differ from the official forecasts, which raises concerns among financial analysts.
This forecast reflects the complex economic situation in Ukraine, where inflationary processes and fluctuations in the exchange rate can have a significant impact on the well-being of the population and businesses. Given the instability in the global economy and internal challenges, it is important to monitor further changes in economic policy and the market's reaction to these forecasts.