Alexey Kozyrev's Economic Outlook for February 2026
Financial analyst Alexey Kozyrev has issued a forecast for February 2026, detailing expectations for inflation, currency exchange rates, and price increases for specific goods, while also providing guidance on structuring personal savings. According to his analysis, the official annual inflation rate as of December 2025 stood at 8%. The projected monthly inflation for February 2026 is expected to range between 1% and 1.2%. This forecast comes amid ongoing economic pressures stemming from the war and global market volatility.
During this period, the euro is predicted to trade above 51 UAH, while the US dollar is forecast to remain within a corridor of 42.50 to 43.50 UAH. Kozyrev noted that the European Union remains one of Ukraine's primary trading partners. He also emphasized that despite the official decline in inflation, consumers in stores are encountering prices significantly higher than the stated 8% figure.
“On one hand, our official inflation rate is decreasing... On the other hand, we all go to the stores and see that prices are constantly rising, and there's no 8% there—it's significantly more.” – Alexey Kozyrev
Anticipated Price Increases for Goods
Price hikes are forecast for several food categories:
- Eggs may rise to 70-80 UAH per ten;
- Bread is expected to increase in price by 1-3%;
- The cost of dairy products, particularly butter and hard cheeses, will rise;
- Price increases are expected for imported vegetables and fruits;
- The projected average price for gasoline and diesel may reach 60 UAH per liter (an increase of 2 UAH per liter);
- Autogas could reach 40 UAH.
Kozyrev provided recommendations for asset allocation in February 2026. He advises investing:
- 60% in real estate and land;
- 25% in hryvnia and foreign currency instruments, such as deposits, government bonds, and cash;
- 10% in stocks and corporate bonds;
- 5% in precious metals.
The recommended composition for the foreign currency portion of savings includes:
- 50-55% in euros;
- 40% in US dollars;
- 5-10% in Swiss francs or gold.
“There are no instruments available now that carry absolutely no risk, given what is happening geopolitically and the ongoing war in the country. Therefore, all instruments carry some degree of risk, but we are currently choosing the ones with the lowest risks.” – Alexey Kozyrev
Alexey Kozyrev's forecasts on inflation and currency rates reflect Ukraine's current economic situation, which remains unstable due to geopolitical factors and the war. The rising cost of consumer goods, despite official inflation data, points to the real difficulties faced by consumers. The savings structure recommendations underscore the necessity for caution when selecting investment instruments under current conditions, taking into account the inherent risks. For international observers, this highlights the specific economic challenges within a wartime economy.