The Fragile Foundations of Gulf State Infrastructure
Economist Oleksiy Kushch has issued a warning that the infrastructure of Persian Gulf states is highly vulnerable in a prolonged war, risking the collapse of critical desalination and power supply systems. He notes that 90% of water in these Gulf monarchies comes from desalinating seawater, while urbanization levels also stand at 90%. This combination creates severe risks during extended conflict, as their infrastructure, though technologically advanced in appearance, is fundamentally unreliable. The region's heavy dependence on these interconnected systems makes it uniquely susceptible to cascading failures.
Contrast with Ukraine's Soviet-Era Durability
Kushch contrasted this with Ukraine's infrastructure, which was built during the Soviet era with significant redundancy.
"Ukraine's infrastructure was created by the Soviet Union, which used vast amounts of metal and built in considerable excess capacity. The Soviet Union designed this infrastructure with the prospect of nuclear war in mind,"the expert emphasized. This historical approach means the Ukrainian system has a greater inherent potential to withstand crisis-level pressures.
He outlined a dire scenario for the Gulf states during a hot summer if water supply, sewage, and power were cut.
"In summer, if there is no water supply, sewage, or electricity, then in the heat, when it's over fifty degrees Celsius, all those skyscrapers turn into death traps, places unfit for living,"Kushch noted. This highlights the extreme risk to the population in a wartime context.
Kushch also pointed out that the timeline for historical events in the Middle East moves faster than in other regions.
"Historical time moves significantly faster in the Middle East. Therefore, a protracted war in the Middle East is not four years, as it is for us, but three months,"the economist concluded. This compressed timeframe underscores the urgency of the infrastructure threat and emphasizes the critical importance of system stability for sustaining life in the region.
The vulnerability of Persian Gulf infrastructure poses a direct threat to regional stability in the event of potential military conflicts. Since most water is obtained through desalination, any disruption to power supply could have catastrophic consequences for the population. The comparison with Ukraine's more resilient infrastructure highlights the stark difference in approaches to building and maintaining essential life-support systems for crisis conditions.