Hryvnia Exchange Rate and Foreign Exchange Market
The hryvnia exchange rate will remain sensitive to news from the energy sector and inflation expectations during the period from December 8 to 14. At the same time, demand for cash currency may remain high, which will affect quotations in the foreign exchange market.
On the interbank market, the dollar exchange rate will fluctuate between 42.2 and 42.6 UAH, while the euro exchange rate will be between 48.0 and 49.75 UAH. In cash circulation, the dollar can be purchased for 42.3–42.8 UAH, while the euro will cost 48.0–49.75 UAH. The interbank difference between buying and selling rates is 0.15 UAH for the dollar and 0.20 UAH for the euro. The expected spread in banks will be 0.5–0.6 UAH for the dollar and 0.8–1 UAH for the euro, while in exchange offices the spread is expected to be 0.6–1 UAH for the dollar and 1–1.3 UAH for the euro. Average weekly fluctuations may amount to 1–1.5% of the starting values.
Energy Instability and International Reserves
The main trigger for the market remains energy instability, which is confirmed by expert Taras Lesoviy. He also notes that by the end of the year, interest rates on hryvnia deposits may reach 18%.
"The energy situation in the country, which is especially relevant in the context of rising prices for energy resources, remains a key factor influencing inflation expectations" – Taras Lesoviy.
It should be noted that Ukraine's international reserves exceed 50 billion dollars, which may affect the stability of the national currency.
Thus, the foreign exchange market in Ukraine during the specified period will be influenced by external and internal factors, including the energy situation and inflation expectations.
- Energy situation
- Inflation expectations
- Demand for currency
- International reserves
The situation on the Ukrainian foreign exchange market continues to remain under pressure from various factors that may cause fluctuations in the hryvnia exchange rate. The importance of international reserves for the stability of the hryvnia also emphasizes the possibility of maintaining the exchange rate at a certain level in the face of external shocks.