Economic Forecasts for February 2026
February 2026 is poised to be a significant month for Ukraine's economy, with projections indicating shifts in wages, pensions, and the cost of essential goods. Analysts point to several influencing factors, including inflation, currency fluctuations, and changes in the fuel market. These forecasts come as the country continues to navigate a complex post-war economic landscape.
Inflation for 2025 reached 8%, which will directly impact pension recalculations. According to the recalculation formula, pensions are set to increase by 4% of the inflation rate. Consequently, the minimum pension payment for non-working retirees aged 65 with a full work history will be no less than 3,458.8 UAH. Additionally, age-based supplements for pensioners turning 70, 75, or 80 will range from 300 to 570 UAH.
Projected Shifts in Salaries and Food Costs
Regarding wages, the average salary in February will be influenced by two opposing factors. On one hand, it will rise due to significant pay increases for teachers and doctors, along with promised government bonuses for energy sector workers. On the other hand, average earnings in the corporate sector may decline, as noted by economist Andriy Zablovsky.
The forecasted increase in food prices for February is estimated between 0.6% and 1.1%. Specific projections include:
- A 5% rise in egg prices, reaching 66–70 UAH per ten;
- A 5–8% increase for buckwheat, to 40–42 UAH per kg;
- Lemons potentially exceeding 100 UAH per kg, indicating a 10% rise for citrus fruits;
- Butter and cheeses increasing by 2–5%.
Currency values are also expected to shift. The forecast for the cash exchange rate of the US dollar is 43.40–43.90 UAH per dollar, while the official rate is projected at 42.5 UAH per dollar. The euro is forecast to trade around 51 UAH. The hryvnia's depreciation, coupled with a so-called 'generator surcharge' on energy, will contribute to rising prices.
Price hikes are also anticipated in the fuel market. With the global oil price projected at $66 per barrel, the procurement cost of fuel has already risen by over 2 UAH per liter. The price of autogas is expected to approach 38 UAH per liter.
Therefore, February 2026 will bring changes to the financial sphere, affecting wages, pensions, and product prices, which will, in turn, impact the population's standard of living.
The economic changes slated for February 2026 could significantly affect the welfare of Ukrainian citizens. While pension increases may help cover basic needs despite inflationary pressure, rising costs for food and fuel could erode real purchasing power, necessitating careful monitoring by the state. These economic projections underscore the need for adaptive policies to support stability and public well-being amid evolving economic realities.