Ukraine's Economic Outlook Discussed by Central Bank Official
In an interview with the Economic Truth publication, First Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), Serhii Nikolaichuk, addressed the state of the economy, the banking system, the hryvnia exchange rate, and regulatory matters. He provided data on gross domestic product (GDP) growth, reserve levels, lending, the shadow economy, and outlined plans for regulating fintech companies and bank privatization. This assessment comes as Ukraine continues to navigate the economic challenges of wartime.
According to the information, Ukraine's GDP grew by 3% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with full-year growth for 2025 reaching 1.8%. Nikolaichuk noted that the NBU has not observed a critical deterioration in economic activity in January 2026 compared to January 2025. He also emphasized that no complaints about banks ceasing operations during blackouts were recorded. A significant outflow of business funds from banks at the end of 2025 was attributed to seasonal factors.
Lending Activity and International Reserves
In the lending sector, the credit portfolio for individuals grew by 34% in 2025, compared to 39% in 2024. The share of state programs in business lending decreased from more than half in 2022 to approximately one-third at the time of the interview. The net portfolio of hryvnia business loans under the '5-7-9%' program grew by 12% in 2025, while the business loan portfolio outside this program increased by almost 50%. The state's debt to banks under the '5-7-9%' program stood at about UAH 8 billion.
The First Deputy Governor also noted that the weighted average effective mortgage rate in December 2025 was 8.1% in the primary market and 8.7% in the secondary market. Bank lending financed the construction of 1.4 gigawatts of new energy capacity in Ukraine. State-owned banks control 52% of the assets in Ukraine's banking system, and banks hold government bonds (OVDP) worth almost UAH 1 trillion.
At the beginning of 2026, Ukraine's international reserves reached nearly $60 billion, double the amount at the start of the full-scale invasion. The reserve level covers about 120% of the composite adequacy metric under IMF methodology. According to the NBU's forecast, reserves will grow to $65 billion by the end of 2026 and to nearly $73 billion by the end of 2027. Inflation in Ukraine decreased from a peak of nearly 16% in May 2025 to 7.4% in January 2026.
Serhii Nikolaichuk stressed that 'additional attention from the National Bank' is important for the economy's further development.
The regulator's key arguments against grounds for a post-war hryvnia collapse include the international reserves achieved in early 2026, the confirmed €90 billion Ukraine Support Loan, and the expected reduction in military spending, which will lower the need for arms imports.
Serhii Nikolaichuk's statements highlight positive trends in the Ukrainian economy, indicating a gradual recovery from a difficult period. GDP growth, rising foreign exchange reserves, and declining inflation are key indicators of stability and confidence in the economic environment. Continued regulatory reforms and the development of financial institutions can also contribute to further economic growth.