Massive return of Ukrainians from abroad is not expected at least until 2027. The return will occur slowly, approximately 100 thousand people per year. This forecast is included in the inflation report of the National Bank of Ukraine. This is reported by UNIAN.
The regulator notes that key factors remain the security situation in Ukraine, the pace of economic recovery, and the living conditions of Ukrainians in European countries. Even if the active phase of the war ends, security risks will still restrain the return of refugees home for a long time.
Return of Ukrainians from abroad: NBU forecasts until 2027
The NBU believes that the policies of European Union countries regarding support for Ukrainians reduce the motivation for a quick return. More stable social and economic conditions abroad may keep some citizens even after the situation in Ukraine improves.
According to the regulator's forecast:
- In 2025, net outflow of the population will be about 200 thousand people;
- In 2026, migration losses will remain at approximately 200 thousand;
- In 2027, the return of about 100 thousand Ukrainians is expected, which is significantly less than previous estimates.
Position of EU countries
Some European countries are already preparing for changes in policies regarding Ukrainian refugees. For example, Poland is preparing a draft law to end the special status of Ukrainians after the temporary protection expires. The Netherlands also states plans to gradually wind down housing programs for refugees after 2027.
According to the forecasts of the Dutch government, about 135 thousand Ukrainians will be able to obtain three-year residence permits from March 2027, but will have to pay for their housing and medical services themselves. This, according to the NBU, may affect the decisions of some citizens regarding their return or further stay abroad.
Recall that in October 2025, European Union countries issued 74,175 new decisions on granting temporary protection to Ukrainian refugees.