Organizing the Overseas Vote
The Central Election Commission and the 'Opora' Civil Network are actively preparing for Ukrainians abroad to participate in the nation's first post-war elections. Their work focuses on mechanisms for active voter registration, calculating the required number of polling stations, and informing citizens about how to take part. This effort is crucial for ensuring the democratic legitimacy of a future government after the conflict.
Representatives from the Central Election Commission have already visited various countries to study the practicalities of overseas voting. Several concrete proposals in the form of amendments and draft articles have been developed during this preparatory phase. Estimates of the Ukrainian population currently abroad vary widely, from 4.5 million to 11.5 million people. According to the International Organization for Migration, approximately 6 million Ukrainians are residing within the European Union. While the official voter list contains 34 million adult citizens, fewer than 30 million people are physically present in Ukraine.
A maximum of 150 polling stations can be established at diplomatic missions and consulates, with each station capable of serving up to 5,000 voters per day. A key factor is that temporary protection for Ukrainians in the EU is set to expire in April 2027, which may affect their ability or willingness to participate. The working group preparing for the elections is not seriously considering the introduction of electronic or postal voting.
The Critical Need for Active Voter Registration
Olha Aivazovska, a representative of the 'Opora' Civil Network, noted:
“These visits and the study of the local context proved more effective than simply presenting well-drafted norms, articles, and proposals. I have the impression that the Central Election Commission itself became convinced that organizing a significantly larger-scale overseas vote is necessary, possible, and nothing to be afraid of.”
She also emphasized that while data shows about 6 million Ukrainians are in the EU, not all may be prepared to vote.
“To prevent Ukraine from deploying an extensive network of polling stations that won't be needed on such a scale, there is a proposal to conduct active voter registration,”Aivazovska stated.
Following an active registration drive, the expected number of overseas voters could shrink to between 1.5 and 2 million. Some polling stations would need to be opened outside consulates and diplomatic premises, in rented or partner-provided spaces. Another proposal is to hold several days of voting at diplomatic missions and one day at special stations located elsewhere.
“Then we have a figure to target from both an organizational and a financial perspective, because any action requires resources. After active registration, we will open the number of polling stations that are actually needed for citizens to express their will,”
added Aivazovska.
It is important to note that the electoral process for the Ukrainian presidential election must begin no later than six months after the termination or cancellation of martial law. However, Aivazovska warned of a risk of distrust in the results: “Otherwise, we will fall into the trap of distrust in the results and low legitimacy of the government, because voter turnout on election day could be as low as 30%.”
Organizing the vote for Ukrainians abroad in the first post-war elections is a complex task requiring meticulous preparation and consideration of numerous factors.
Preparing for the overseas vote is a vital step in securing the democratic right to participate for all citizens, regardless of their location. Accounting for the size of the Ukrainian diaspora and conducting active voter registration could significantly impact the effectiveness and legitimacy of the electoral process. This undertaking also challenges the authorities to ensure transparency and build trust in the elections to avoid the risks associated with low turnout and public skepticism. Therefore, the successful organization of voting abroad could be a major step in rebuilding confidence in Ukraine's state institutions.
As preparations intensify for the elections, it is essential to consider the specific challenges faced by military personnel and Ukrainians living abroad. Understanding these obstacles is crucial for ensuring that all eligible voters can participate effectively. For a deeper insight into the hurdles and potential solutions for military voters and the diaspora, see our detailed analysis on the key challenges for military voters and the diaspora.