How Weather Conditions Are Shaping Ukrainian Grain Prices
Adverse weather in Ukraine is a primary driver behind rising grain prices, with barley becoming notably more expensive even as export volumes shrink. Current prices for feed barley at Ukrainian ports have climbed to 10,800–11,000 UAH per ton, equivalent to approximately $220–222 USD. Traders are reportedly willing to pay over 11,000 UAH per ton for prompt shipment. This situation highlights the vulnerability of global food supply chains to regional climate events.
Market Dynamics for Barley and Corn
Beyond barley, corn prices have also risen by $5–6 USD per week, reaching $210–212 USD per ton. Despite these price increases, Ukraine's barley exports remain significantly lower than last year's levels. As of February 1 in the 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine has exported 1.34 million tons of barley, compared to 2.08 million tons during the same period last year. Industry projections suggest Ukraine may export an additional 1–1.2 million tons of barley by the season's end.
Prices for malting barley are holding steady at 10,600–11,000 UAH per ton delivered to plants. While Ukrainian export volumes have decreased, global demand for barley remains robust. For instance, on February 3, Algeria's state agency OAIC purchased 200,000 tons of feed barley at $267–268 USD per ton C&F. Turkey is showing purchase levels around $265 USD per ton C&F, and Jordan is buying at $273.5 USD per ton C&F. Thus, despite strong international demand and rising prices, Ukraine's barley exports continue to fall.
The decline in Ukrainian barley exports, even as prices rise, may point to deeper issues within the agricultural sector, such as the impact of unfavorable weather or other production-limiting factors.
High global demand from countries like Algeria, Turkey, and Jordan presents potential opportunities for Ukrainian producers. However, resolving export challenges is crucial to capitalizing on this demand. Consequently, the Ukrainian barley market remains in a complex state that requires careful monitoring.