Updated consensus forecast for the Ukrainian economy
The Center for Economic Strategy, in collaboration with the German Economic Team, has presented an updated consensus forecast for the Ukrainian economy for 2025-2026. According to the forecast, Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) growth will slow to 2% in 2025. In comparison, the actual growth in 2024 was 2.9%. At the same time, Ukraine's nominal GDP is expected to exceed 200 billion US dollars.
Forecasts for 2025-2026
The inflation forecast for the end of 2025 is 8.8%, while the annual average is expected to be around 12.9%. As for 2026, the median expectation for GDP growth is 2.4%. However, forecasts heavily depend on the conditions under which the economy will develop. In the event of peace, economic growth could reach 5%, whereas under conditions of continued war, growth will be limited to 2.6%.
- The budget deficit in the event of continued war will exceed 20% of GDP.
- Ukraine's total external financing needs for 2026 are estimated at 45 billion dollars.
- International partners will only be able to cover 39 billion of this amount.
This data underscores the importance of stability and peace for the further economic development of the country.
The updated consensus forecast reflects the challenges facing the Ukrainian economy and emphasizes the necessity for external support to ensure stability. In the context of military conflict, economic growth remains under threat, and financial dependence on international partners may complicate recovery. Meeting the conditions for achieving peace and stability will be crucial for improving economic indicators in the future.