Drilling and Production Volumes in Russia for 2025
In 2025, Russian oil companies reduced their drilling activity to its lowest point in three years, a move that is likely to result in decreased crude oil production for 2026. This downturn is occurring against a backdrop of international sanctions, a strengthening ruble, and declining financial performance, all of which are negatively impacting the nation's petroleum sector. This trend is critical to global energy markets, as Russia remains one of the world's top oil producers.
Throughout 2025, approximately 29.14 thousand kilometers of operational wells were drilled, representing a 3.4% decrease from the previous year. Drilling volumes in December 2025 were roughly 16% lower than in December 2024. By January 2026, Russia's average daily oil output had fallen to 9.246 million barrels per day, which is 328,000 barrels below the country's OPEC+ production quota. Concurrently, the volume of Russian oil held in floating storage on tankers has increased, reaching about 140 million barrels, up from 100 million barrels in early October 2025.
Economic Challenges for Russia
To sustain its oil production at a level of 9.2–9.4 million barrels per day, Russia must drill a minimum of 26–29 thousand kilometers of wells annually. Following the imposition of sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, the discount for Russia's Urals crude oil compared to Brent crude widened to approximately $27 per barrel. In February 2026, the average wholesale price for AI-92 gasoline in Russia rose by 6.9% to 62,431 rubles per ton, while the price for AI-95 gasoline increased by 5.8% to 63,545 rubles per ton.
The reduction in drilling and the potential drop in oil production could have severe consequences for the Russian economy, where oil revenues remain a primary source of state income. Amid escalating sanctions and deteriorating financial metrics, the stability of Russia's oil market is increasingly uncertain and requires close observation. These trends point to further economic challenges ahead, including potential budget revenue shortfalls and the possibility of heightened social tensions within the country.