The Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service warns that Russia may become dependent on external fuel supplies by the end of the current year. The fuel crisis in the country has a systemic nature and is the result of years of degradation of the energy infrastructure. The technological obsolescence of refineries and the shutdown of individual enterprises have led to a significant reduction in production capabilities in the country.
'Years of underfunding, technological isolation, and mismanagement have turned a once-profitable industry into a relic of inertia,' the FIS states.
The Russian government has tried to stabilize the situation by imposing a ban on gasoline exports. However, these measures have proven ineffective. The loss of foreign currency revenues from external sales has deprived enterprises of the ability to finance production modernization. As a result, fuel prices have risen, impacting the transport services market and consumer goods. The intelligence warns of a possible acceleration of inflation in Russia.
Temporary measures taken by Moscow - importing fuel from Belarus and China, and increasing octane levels with additives, do not address the fundamental problems of the industry and may create additional technical risks for consumers.
'Instead of stabilization, the Russian authorities face another front of economic risks - internal, expensive, and uncontrollable,' the FIS concluded.
During the unfolding fuel crisis in Russia, it has become important for the country to seek external fuel supplies. Ineffective government measures and temporary solutions may lead to further energy crises and increased economic risks.