Military Tech Progress vs. Electoral Support
Sociologist Andriy Yeremenko, speaking on a program hosted by political analyst Yuriy Romanenko, stated that advancements in supplying the army with drones and broader technological development are not translating into electoral support for Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. The public primarily views him through the lens of user-friendly digital services, notably the Diia app. The minister's popularity is rooted in the successful digitalization of government services, while his military achievements fail to generate political capital.
Ukrainians make a clear distinction between the responsibilities of different officials. Earlier, media coverage was dominated by reports of tough defenses and Ukrainian troop withdrawals. Now, the narrative has shifted: the enemy's offensive has significantly slowed, and stories about Ukraine's own strikes are emerging. Successful operations behind enemy lines are attributed by the public to specific security agencies, such as intelligence and the security service. As Andriy Yeremenko noted:
“We see news about successful strikes, but none of this is directly linked to officials. Success is usually credited to specific intelligence units or special services, so this positive sentiment simply doesn’t reach Fedorov.” - Andriy Yeremenko
The Complex Situation Around Mykhailo Fedorov
The situation surrounding Mykhailo Fedorov remains complex. Assessing the true political weight of the Minister of Digital Transformation is currently difficult due to the absence of an active campaign. As Yeremenko points out, “once the election campaign begins, the situation could change, but he hasn’t declared any intention to become an elected political figure—whether president or parliamentarian.” At the same time, he emphasized that “with Budanov, we can clearly see from his activity that he has political ambitions. But with Fedorov, I don’t see that at all.”
Fedorov is not taking public steps to build his own political force, although behind-the-scenes dynamics within the ruling team suggest a high level of trust from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy toward the digital minister. “I have a subjective but very strong feeling that Fedorov’s personal relationship with Zelenskyy is somewhat better than, say, Budanov’s,” Yeremenko remarked. This trust is built on a long and conflict-free working relationship between them.
Currently, the role of the specialized technology ministry in military processes remains invisible to the general public. “Fedorov is loved primarily for the Ministry of Digital Transformation and the Diia app. The fact that the situation with drones on the front line is improving hasn’t yet translated into electoral gains for him, even though we see clear improvements,” Andriy Yeremenko noted. In the event of political transformations, this minister could offer the current president the most favorable terms, assuring that after a change in power, he would not face significant repercussions.
This situation underscores the importance of how public opinion perceives the roles of officials in different areas. Despite technological achievements, Fedorov’s electoral prospects remain uncertain, highlighting the need for politicians to more actively communicate their successes. At the same time, the president’s trust in the minister could play a key role in the future development of Fedorov’s political career, especially in the context of potential shifts in the country’s political landscape.
The complexities of political dynamics in Ukraine extend beyond Fedorov's situation. Recent developments surrounding Budanov's ambitions for the presidency highlight how military figures are navigating the shifting landscape of public support and electoral strategies. Understanding these interconnections may provide deeper insights into the upcoming political landscape.