Economist Oleg Ustenko conducted a study on the state of the Russian economy, debunking illusions about the country's quick collapse and warning of the dangers of primitive optimism. During a conversation with Yuriy Romanenko, it was revealed that negotiations between Russian envoy Dmitriev and the American elite had failed, resulting in new sanctions against 'Lukoil' and 'Rosneft'.
Ustenko highlighted three time periods for analyzing the Russian situation. In the long term, the economic situation in the country turned out to be very poor, noting that all talks about import substitution are a fiction. The problem lies in the detachment from the global market of technology and equipment for industry.
In the short term, the situation changes significantly, maintaining a high level of danger. Considering the impact of sanctions on the oil sector, Ustenko explained the mechanism of pressure on Russia and the consequences of the measures.
Analyzing the situation in the Russian economy, problems with inflation, the Central Bank rate, and the overall state of affairs were revealed. Ustenko drew a parallel with the Iranian experience, considering possible scenarios for the development of events.
The most alarming conclusion was a warning about the increase in the level of aggression from Russia in the short term. In the geopolitical context, Ukraine plays a key role for all players: Europe, Russia, the USA, and China.
The call for sobriety in perceptions of Russia's future and preparation for the most dangerous periods of the situation was emphasized in the conclusion of the conversation between Ustenko and Romanenko. It is necessary to take into account real problems and accept cold realism.