The Central Bank of Russia presented four scenarios for the economy: none foresee growth

Scenarios for the development of the Russian economy

The Central Bank of Russia presented four scenarios for the development of the economy - and none foresee improvement. This was reported by the head of the Center for Counteracting Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council Andriy Kovalенко.

He noted that even in the 'basic' variant - with oil at $55 and no new sanctions - growth is only 0.5–1%.

In the 'risky' scenario - official inflation exceeds 12%, GDP falls by 3.5%, the National Welfare Fund is exhausted as early as 2026. 'Basically, Nabiullina admits: if we do not stop the war and start negotiations - the Russian economy will collapse. This is not a forecast - this is a warning from the system to itself,' emphasized Kovalensko.

The analysis presented by the Central Bank of Russia shows that even in the most favorable case for the country's economy, very small growth is anticipated. At the same time, the greatest threats and problems are emphasized in the 'risky' scenario, where inflation rises, GDP falls, and the National Welfare Fund risks being depleted even in the near future.