Why Ukraine's Fuel Prices Barely Follow the Global Oil Market

Fuel Prices in Ukraine Show Little Correlation with Global Oil

According to Главком: According to Hennadii Riabtsev, Director of Special Projects at the Scientific and Technical Center 'Psychea,' there is a weak link between fuel prices in Ukraine and global oil benchmarks. He stated that Ukrainian fuel prices move in sync with oil quotations in only about 7% of cases. In the vast majority of instances, the situation differs significantly, raising serious doubts about the fairness of retail fuel pricing mechanisms.

Hennadii Riabtsev noted that prices at Ukrainian gas stations began rising on March 2. As of April 17, 2026, the average price for A-95 gasoline is approximately 74.05 UAH per liter, while the price for diesel fuel has reached 91.88 UAH per liter. The expert emphasized that the situation with diesel looks particularly cynical, as its cost has increased far more sharply than gasoline.

"Simply put, our retail networks are taking advantage of the fact that farmers in spring and transporters cannot refuse diesel," Riabtsev noted.

A Comparison of Fuel Price Structures

Furthermore, Riabtsev compared the structure of fuel prices in Ukraine and European countries. In typical European nations, taxes account for about 55% of the final price, fixed costs for gas stations are around 15%, and the network's margin is 3-5%. This means the actual cost of the fuel itself constitutes roughly 25-27%. Therefore, if fuel on the world market doubles in price, the retail price increases by a maximum of that 25-27%.

In Ukraine, however, the tax share is lower-about 45%-but the retail network adds at least 15% to the price.

"This is four to five times higher than in, say, Poland," the expert stressed.

Thus, the data presented by Hennadii Riabtsev indicates significant discrepancies in how fuel prices are formed in Ukraine, causing concern among consumers and experts. This pricing dynamic occurs within a broader context of post-war economic challenges and efforts to stabilize the national energy market.

Amid global oil price fluctuations, the fuel price situation in Ukraine raises serious questions about the transparency and fairness of pricing in the country. The weakened link between domestic and global prices, coupled with the sharp increase in diesel costs, could have negative consequences for the agricultural sector and logistics. This, in turn, may impact the overall economic situation in Ukraine. Experts are calling for a review of pricing policy and active measures from the state to address the problem.

As fuel prices continue to rise, understanding the broader context becomes crucial. The recent analysis highlights disparities in pricing structures across countries. For a more detailed look at the latest changes in fuel costs for gasoline and diesel in Ukraine, you can explore the full story here.