Business Confidence Index Climbs to 52.7, Signaling Broad Sectoral Optimism

Rise in Business Expectations Index

According to НБУ: In March 2026, the Business Expectations Index (BEI) rose to 52.7, marking a significant improvement from February 2026's reading of 45.9 and March 2025's figure of 51.8. This is the first time since May 2025 that optimistic assessments have been recorded across all surveyed sectors, with the construction industry demonstrating the highest level of confidence. This key indicator, which measures business leaders' outlook for the coming months, suggests a turning point in economic sentiment.

However, the labor market remains fragile. Only companies in the construction sector plan to increase their overall workforce, while representatives from other sectors anticipate staff reductions, with the most significant cuts expected in industry. Among other business types, only construction firms forecast a slowdown in the pace of growth for purchasing prices.

Factors Driving the Improvement in Business Activity

Several factors contributed to the improvement in the business activity index:

• gradual normalization of the situation in the energy sector,
• revitalization of consumer demand,
• inflow of international financial assistance,
• stabilization of the currency market,
• seasonal factors.

Simultaneously, restraining factors persist, including intensified attacks on critical infrastructure, heightened inflationary expectations, and a shortage of qualified personnel.

The growth of the Business Expectations Index points to a certain improvement in the country's economic situation, although the labor market still faces serious challenges. The prospect of workforce growth solely in construction, against a backdrop of reductions in other sectors, underscores the need for comprehensive reforms to stabilize the job market. Successfully overcoming the existing restraining factors could foster further economic recovery and an improved overall business climate.

While the recent rise in the Business Expectations Index indicates a positive shift in economic sentiment, concerns about rising prices persist. For a deeper understanding of these challenges and how they might affect future business operations, explore our coverage on February's Business Expectations Index, which highlights the ongoing inflationary pressures that could impact various sectors.