ISW Exposes Kremlin's Exaggerated Claims About Successes in Ukraine

Analysis by the American Institute for the Study of War

According to ХВИЛЯ: The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has released an analysis comparing Kremlin statements about Russian military achievements in Ukraine with actual frontline data. It found that the figures announced by the Kremlin are significantly inflated: numbers regarding captured territories and settlements are several times higher than the real results.

Actual Data and Losses

For instance, the President of the Russian Federation claimed the capture of over 3,000 square kilometers and 133 settlements since the start of the year. However, according to ISW estimates, only about 622 square kilometers and 64 settlements have actually come under Russian control. In June, Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov reported that Russian forces had advanced 636 square kilometers and captured 29 settlements. Meanwhile, ISW assesses the actual advance in June at approximately 30 square kilometers and 20 settlements.

The study also highlights heavy losses among Russian troops: in June, they lost an average of about 1,298 soldiers for each square kilometer of captured territory. These figures suggest that Russia's capacity for further offensives is gradually diminishing, and the cost of each new advance remains extremely high, as noted by U.S. Vice President JD Vance.

It is worth noting that the Kremlin's claims about advances came shortly before a phone call between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump on July 4. Meanwhile, the United States continues to provide military and intelligence support to Ukraine, underscoring international backing for Ukraine's efforts in the conflict.

This ISW analysis highlights the gap between official Russian leadership statements and the reality on the battlefield, which may indicate Kremlin attempts to maintain morale among its troops and population.

Thus, it is important to consider that the situation on the front remains complex, and international support for Ukraine could be decisive for the further development of the conflict.

The discrepancies in the Kremlin's reported military achievements raise critical questions about its strategic intentions. As tensions escalate, Putin's dismissal of a ceasefire plan and commitment to seize additional Ukrainian territories suggest a continued push for territorial gains, despite the evident challenges faced by Russian forces on the ground.