Ex-U.S. Envoy Keith Kellogg on Russia's War: 'He Is Not Winning' and Still Aims for Kyiv

Keith Kellogg Assesses the Strategic Stalemate in Ukraine

According to ХВИЛЯ: In an interview with PBS NewsHour's Compass Points, former U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg analyzed Russia's strategic position in its ongoing war. Kellogg noted the conflict has now lasted four years and highlighted Russia's staggering military casualties, estimated between 1.2 and 1.4 million killed and wounded. He pointed out that Russia has failed to cross the Dnipro River or capture Kyiv, clear indicators its strategic objectives have faltered. This assessment comes as Western intelligence continues to monitor Russia's capacity for a prolonged fight.

Putin's Imperative and Potential Downfall

Commenting on Russian President Vladimir Putin's potential actions, Kellogg argued that Putin cannot be considered a victor.

"He is not winning,"

Kellogg stated, emphasizing that Putin must secure a victory or face internal threats:

"If he doesn't, someone will probably try to remove him."

The retired Lieutenant General added that, realistically, Putin likely still seeks to conquer or at least reach the Ukrainian capital, remarking,

"If you want to believe he's a Jeffersonian democrat and will stop, fine."

Kellogg also observed that the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO has altered the regional security landscape, potentially impacting the conflict's trajectory. He expressed concern over analysts' warnings that Russia might drag out negotiations until 2027. In conclusion, Kellogg suggested the most prudent course for Russia would be to

"take what you have and go home,"

implying a necessary strategic shift for Moscow. The full interview is available on the Khvylya website.

Kellogg's analysis underscores the war's complex dynamics after four years of fighting, which have exacted a heavy toll on Russia and called its military goals into question. With Finland and Sweden now in NATO, Russia faces a significantly strengthened alliance on its northwestern flank, a major strategic setback. The prospect of prolonged talks until 2027 suggests a protracted conflict remains possible without a decisive political or military resolution.