Support for Ukraine or Victory for Russia: How Much Will the EU Have to Pay in Both Cases

Study 'Europe's Choice'

The study 'Europe's Choice', prepared by the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs in collaboration with the consulting company Corisk, compares the European Union's expenses for supporting Ukraine with the costs in the event of a Russian victory. It is predicted that financing for Ukrainian defense will cost the EU between 606 and 972 billion dollars. At the same time, in the case of a Russian victory, the costs for strengthening defense in Europe could reach between 1.4 and 1.8 trillion dollars.

Financial and Strategic Implications

The study is based on the assumption that the US will not participate in supporting Ukraine. In the event of a Russian victory, the EU may face huge financial liabilities, which will include not only military expenditures but also costs for accommodating millions of Ukrainian refugees who may head to EU countries. An important aspect of the study is also the proposal of a 28-point 'peace plan' from the administration of Donald Trump.

According to forecasts, additional funding to support Ukraine will allow:

• to purchase about 8 million drones;
• to form 95 brigades;
• to secure up to 2500 new main battle tanks.

One possible source of funding is the seizure of frozen Russian assets. Thus, the choice between supporting Ukraine and the possibility of a Russian victory has serious financial implications for the European Union.

The results of this study highlight not only the financial but also the strategic challenges facing the European Union in the context of the war in Ukraine.

The final choice between supporting Ukraine and the uncertainty associated with the possibility of a Russian victory can significantly impact security and stability in the region, making this data important for political decisions at the EU level. In the context of rising tension in international relations, this study can serve as a basis for further debates on Europe's security strategies.