Analyst Warns of Potential Russian Aggression Against the Baltics Following Ukraine War

Analyst Tigran Avakyan's Forecast on Post-Ukraine Russian Aggression

According to ХВИЛЯ: During an interview with Yuriy Romanenko, editor-in-chief of 'Khvylia,' analyst Tigran Avakyan predicted that Russia could redirect its aggression toward the Baltic states after the war in Ukraine concludes. Avakyan suggested this might be an attempt to avert internal destabilization caused by the return of hundreds of thousands, possibly up to a million, demobilized soldiers.

He noted that Russia will retain a vast number of armed individuals, many of whom have been psychologically scarred and habituated to violence by the war, creating a risk of social upheaval. This internal pressure, he argues, could drive the Kremlin to seek an external conflict.

Potential Directions for Russian Aggression

Avakyan also referenced analyses by Western strategist George Friedman, who outlined several possible directions for future Russian aggression, including:

• The South (Caucasus)
• The East (Central Asia)
• The Baltic region

However, Avakyan emphasized that the Baltics appear the most likely target due to geographic accessibility, logistical familiarity, and ideological appeal to the Russian public. He specifically highlighted the Suwalki Gap, Narva, and Tallinn as potential key focal points for Russian operations.

The analyst suggested Russia might employ hybrid warfare tactics, avoiding open military aggression. He believes the Kremlin could calculate that political instability in key European nations like Germany and France might lead to a weak or divided NATO response. Avakyan stressed that Russia's goal would not be a swift victory over NATO, but rather a protracted process to maintain control over its demobilized forces.

He further indicated that Ukraine could become a crucial element in this security configuration, possessing direct combat experience against Russia. Avakyan asserts that Europe might need to seek assistance from the Ukrainian army to help defend NATO's eastern flank. This scenario could form part of new security guarantees for Ukraine, as he claims that in two years, the Ukrainian army, alongside Poland's developing forces, could be among the only highly combat-ready militaries in Europe.

Tigran Avakyan's forecasts point to serious risks for the Baltic states, which could become a new target for Russian aggression following the war in Ukraine.

Tigran Avakyan

These predictions underscore the critical need to monitor the regional situation, as potential Russian aggression against the Baltics would have severe implications for European security. Given the likelihood of hybrid tactics, NATO members must prepare for various scenarios, including enhanced military presence and support for neighboring states. This also opens new avenues for Ukraine-NATO cooperation, potentially strengthening the region's overall defense. The Baltic states, as NATO members, would trigger a full Alliance response in case of a direct attack, a fundamental deterrent not available to Ukraine.