American Geopolitical Analyst Warns of Potential Russian Collapse After Putin

Post-Putin Russia Could Face a Yugoslav-Style Fate

According to ХВИЛЯ: In an interview for the Personal Landscapes podcast, American geopolitical analyst Robert Kaplan suggested that Russia could potentially disintegrate following Vladimir Putin's departure from power, drawing a parallel with the fate of Yugoslavia. Kaplan stressed that Russia remains critically dependent on a single individual, highlighting the weakness of state institutions in a country he described as having been 'weakly institutionalized throughout its entire history.' This analysis comes at a time when the stability of major powers is under intense global scrutiny.

Russia's Waning Strength on the Global Stage

Within the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine, Kaplan noted that the longer the conflict persists, the weaker Russia becomes, not only in Ukraine but also in the Caucasus, Central Asia, Siberia, and the Far East. He also pointed out that the Soviet-era stockpiles sustaining the Russian army have their limits. According to Kaplan, Putin

“made a colossal miscalculation with this war”

-his power is based on 'concentric circles of oligarchs, criminal, and security service figures.'

Kaplan believes that when Putin eventually leaves, the system could collapse, resulting in something akin to a 'lite version of the former Yugoslavia.' In contrast to Russia's situation, the analyst noted that China has a Standing Committee, indicating a more stable political structure. He emphasized that

“if Xi Jinping were to fall fatally ill tomorrow, China would not collapse,”

pointing to stronger institutions of power in China compared to Russia.

Robert Kaplan's remarks underscore the importance of analyzing political stability during periods of global conflict. His comparison of Russia to Yugoslavia raises significant concerns within the international community, as a potential Russian collapse could lead to new geopolitical challenges and regional instability. The mention of China's institutional strength is also a critical factor that could shape international relations amid shifts in Russian politics. Such forecasts are likely to spur further research into Russia's future and its impact on global affairs.