Iran's Regime Will Survive Khamenei's Death, Security Expert Argues

The Post-Khamenei Era in Iran

According to ХВИЛЯ: International security expert Tamirlan Vagabov argues that the death of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, will not trigger an immediate collapse of the regime. He draws a parallel to the final years of the Soviet Union, emphasizing that state institutions and political factions will be the decisive factors in shaping the country's future as they vie for control over its direction.

Ali Khamenei, who was very old and had been ill in recent years, remained a significant figure in Iranian politics. Vagabov noted:

"I don't fully agree that the system was built on a cult of personality around Khamenei. Of course, he was important up to a point, but there is also the biological factor. The man was genuinely very old."

The expert stressed that, despite Khamenei's health, the Iranian state did not depend solely on one individual. Vagabov remarked:

"In fact, he was ill in recent years, they gave him awards, they kept him in power. Well, he was like a mummy, yes, that's what surrounded Khamenei in recent years."

Iran's Complex Political Landscape

He also highlighted Iran's complex political situation, noting that within the IRGC, other institutions, the Guardian Council, and the parliament, there are many different factions. Among these factions are:

• pacificists
• activists
• hardliners
• those willing to work with Israel, and those who are not

In Vagabov's view, "this shock could reveal this factionalism and show us which of them possesses the greatest resources to, roughly speaking, either start negotiations or continue a war of attrition."

Vagabov also observed that the resources of the United States are not limitless, and considering the distances and strategic assets in the region, "this is a very difficult undertaking even for Washington itself-to prolong this war process." He noted that "the strongest factions could unite, becoming a kind of locomotive for either negotiations or a war of attrition."

The death of Ali Khamenei could be a landmark event for Iran; however, Vagabov believes it does not mean the instant disintegration of the existing political system. The subsequent course of events will depend on internal factionalism and the ability of political groups to adapt to new conditions. This phase could reveal the stronger factions, which are prepared either to continue a hardline policy or to seek opportunities for diplomacy. Given the current geopolitical tensions, particularly with the U.S., Iran's leadership will face serious challenges in choosing a strategy for the country's future development. The succession process for the Supreme Leader is a complex, opaque procedure controlled by a clerical body, ensuring the regime's structure will persist beyond any single individual.