Ukraine’s Population Shrinks by One Million in a Year: Demographers Reveal Causes and Outlook

Ukraine Faces a Demographic Crisis

According to ХВИЛЯ: Ella Libanova, director of the M.V. Ptukha Institute of Demography and Social Studies at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, has sounded the alarm over the country’s demographic situation. By 2026, the population in government-controlled areas stands at approximately 29 million. Over the past year, the number of residents has dropped by one million, driven entirely by natural deaths. Meanwhile, 5.1 million Ukrainians are living abroad, and it is projected that only one-third will ever return. There is also a risk of a second wave of migration once martial law is lifted.

Key Issues and Challenges

Speaking at the expert discussion 'Ukrainian Society 2026: Demography, Migration, Labor Market' on April 21, 2026, Libanova described the steady decline in the population of Ukraine’s controlled territories as a troubling signal. She pointed to high natural mortality as the primary driver behind this trend.

'Every month the war continues means fewer people will come back to Ukraine.' – Ella Libanova

As of late February 2026, Ukrainians temporarily residing in EU countries, Norway, and Switzerland number about 4.4 million, with an additional 700,000 living in other nations worldwide. Germany hosts over 1 million Ukrainians, Poland just under 1 million, and in Czechia, Ukrainians make up 3% of the total population. According to Eurostat, 70% of Ukrainian women who moved abroad are employed.

Libanova also warned of risks tied to the eventual end of martial law.

'We face a second wave of migration after martial law is lifted.' – Ella Libanova

If Ukrainians return home, there is a danger that men might leave again to reunite with their families abroad-though data so far does not show a significant spike in the number of young men overseas.

The current situation underscores the need for a comprehensive strategy to tackle Ukraine’s demographic challenges. Amid war and mass emigration, the country must urgently improve living conditions to encourage returns, while also planning long-term to stabilize the population. Government bodies and society need to actively create conditions that bring citizens back and slow migration. At the same time, enhancing healthcare and social services is critical to reducing the high rate of natural deaths.

The ongoing demographic challenges in Ukraine are compounded by the country's migration policies. Recent discussions have revealed that the goal of attracting 300,000 immigrants annually may be overly ambitious, given the current trends in population decline and emigration. For a deeper understanding of these complex issues and their implications, you can explore more about the realities of Ukraine's immigration targets.