650 thousand Ukrainians may leave Poland in the near future

More than 650 thousand citizens of Ukraine may leave Poland in the near future due to the gradual reduction of benefits and social payments for foreigners. This forecast was published by the Polish Economic Institute, noting that the changes primarily concern social support, rather than the labor market. This is reported by the Association of International Employment of Ukraine.

Ukrainians in Poland: why a mass exodus is possible

According to research, for Ukrainians abroad, key factors remain legal status, stable work, and salary level. Social payments and integration programs are of secondary importance. Analysts emphasize that the Ukrainian community can no longer be divided merely into pre-war migrants and refugees after 2022, as four different social groups have formed.

Experts pay particular attention to the fact that 39% of Ukrainians in Poland — men of medium qualification, most of whom arrived after the start of the full-scale war. This is almost half of the entire Ukrainian community in the country.

Ukrainians in Poland and the new model of integration

The president of the All-Ukrainian Association of Companies for International Employment, Vasyl Voskoboynyk, explains that for Ukrainians who work legally and pay taxes, the conditions will not change significantly. According to him, Poland is not expelling Ukrainians but encouraging them to make a choice between integration through work or leaving.

The biggest changes will affect those living off social assistance, including:

• access restrictions to the 800+ program;
• reduction of medical services;
• decreased overall social support.

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At the same time, the economic contribution of Ukrainians remains significant. In 2024, they contributed nearly 2.7% of Poland's GDP, with about 900 thousand people paying into the pension fund. The loss of even a part of these workers may impact consumption, small business, and the budget. Experts also note that the premature termination of temporary protection in 2026 has rather political motives, and similar processes are already starting in other EU countries.

It should be noted that Poland is preparing for significant changes for citizens of Ukraine after the special law expires. The temporary protection introduced in connection with the full-scale war will cease to be effective on March 4, 2026, and the government does not plan to extend it.