Survey Reveals Cautious Optimism Among Ukrainian Businesses for 2026
Despite the ongoing war, Ukrainian businesses are showing resilience and a measured sense of optimism as they look toward 2026. This outlook is based on a National Bank survey conducted in the fourth quarter of 2025, which found the Business Expectations Index (BEI) at 102.1%, indicating a positive shift in sentiment. Company leaders anticipate a revival in economic activity, an improved inflation outlook, and increased investment in machinery and equipment.
Key Indicators and Expectations
The projected inflation rate for the coming year is 11.1%, a critical figure for business planning. Notably, the share of respondents who fear inflation exceeding 15% has decreased to 17.9%. The average exchange rate for the US dollar is forecast at 44.27 UAH per dollar in 12 months, with 66.6% of those surveyed believing it will surpass 43.50 UAH. This suggests a potential stabilization of confidence in the national currency and the broader economy.
Key expectations from business leaders also include:
- An increase in planned spending on machinery and equipment, now up to 7.0%.
- A growing number of companies intend to take out bank loans, with their share rising to 35.8%.
- 80.9% of those seeking loans prefer to borrow in the local currency, the hryvnia.
However, 83.4% of respondents still identify military action as the primary risk factor for their operations. The balance of responses regarding workforce size has improved to -3.8%. Nevertheless, a shortage of qualified workers and high energy prices remain significant obstacles to business development in Ukraine. The country's economy continues to operate under extraordinary pressure, balancing wartime challenges with the need for future growth.
In summary, despite persistent risks, Ukrainian enterprises are demonstrating a readiness to invest and are striving for positive changes in business activity. Reduced inflation fears and greater access to credit could contribute to a further improvement in the country's economic situation. However, for stable development, resolving the issues of skilled labor shortages and high energy costs remains a crucial challenge for businesses across Ukraine.