Forecast of Population Outflow and Wage Growth
The National Bank of Ukraine forecasts a population outflow in 2026, accompanied by an increase in real incomes and wage growth in the context of a labor shortage. This phenomenon may significantly impact the labor market in the country, as wages increased by over 20% per year in the second half of 2025.
A study conducted by the European Business Association in November 2025 showed that 74% of surveyed enterprises consider the labor shortage a serious issue. This indicates that businesses in Ukraine are forced to compete for workers by raising wages due to a lack of qualified personnel.
Impact of Wage Increases on the Economy
Also in 2026, an increase in the minimum wage of 8.1% is planned. These factors may affect the economic situation in Ukraine, as wage increases amid a shortage of workers could provide incentives for attracting the population to leave the country, which in turn could exacerbate the labor market issue.
The outflow of the population associated with wage growth and labor shortages may pose additional challenges for the Ukrainian economy. While wage increases may initially seem like a positive development, if this trend encourages emigration, it may lead to a deepening staffing crisis in key sectors. Given the outlined forecasts, Ukraine needs to find effective solutions to retain staff and create conditions that encourage the population to stay in the country.