Drones Overtake Artillery for the First Time: Up to 80% of Frontline Casualties Now Caused by UAVs

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles on the Battlefield

According to ХВИЛЯ: Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have become the leading cause of casualties along the front line, surpassing artillery for the first time. According to a strategic study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), by 2025 drones accounted for up to 80% of personnel losses on the front. The IISS report, titled 'UAVs: ISR, Deterrence and War,' was published in March 2026. This shift marks a major transformation in modern warfare, where low-cost drones are reshaping combat dynamics.

At the start of the war on February 24, 2022, Ukraine had fewer than 100 drones in its arsenal. However, by 2025, the country set an ambitious goal of producing 4.5 million drones. Ukraine's FPV drone production surged from 600,000 units in 2023 to 2.2 million in 2024. A single FPV drone costs only a few hundred dollars, and its crew consists of a pilot, a navigator, and a technician.

Drone Production and Deployment

According to the IISS, Russia's drone production figures were only slightly lower than Ukraine's. By mid-2025, Moscow was capable of producing up to 170 Geran-2 drones per day. Russia has heavily invested in the Geran-2, a localized version of Iran's Shahed-136. To boost drone output, Russia expanded a factory in Yelabuga and launched a second production line in Izhevsk.

In some attacks, more than half of the launched drones are cheap decoys, such as the Gerbera or Parody models. Classic drones like the Bayraktar TB2 are now used exclusively for reconnaissance at distances of up to 50 kilometers from the front line. Notably, in 2025, Russian V2U loitering munitions were found to contain a Jetson Orin Nano board (an Nvidia module), and a similar Nvidia chip was also discovered in an experimental version of Iran's Shahed.

Despite the growing use of drones, Ukrainian officials have noted that 'fully autonomous drone swarms are not realistic in the near future.'

Limitations of FPV drones include a low hit rate, dependence on weather conditions, and vulnerability to electronic warfare.

The deployment of drones on the battlefield has fundamentally altered the nature of military operations, particularly in Ukraine, where production is being rapidly scaled up. The increasing number of drones, especially FPV models, points to strategic shifts in the country's defense policy. At the same time, the need to adopt new technologies to improve drone effectiveness in modern combat environments remains critical, underscoring the importance of innovation in this field.

The increasing reliance on drones in modern warfare is not limited to Ukraine. A recent report by CSIS highlights the deployment of autonomous drones by Russia, showcasing how both nations are adapting their military strategies in response to the evolving battlefield dynamics. This shift raises critical questions about the future of aerial combat and the implications for global security.