Geopolitical Analyst George Friedman Dismisses Middle-Power Alliance as Unworkable

Analyst Challenges the Viability of a Middle-Power Bloc

According to ХВИЛЯ: George Friedman, founder of the analysis firm Geopolitical Futures, has sharply criticized the concept of an alliance of middle-power nations, an idea previously proposed by former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. Friedman argues the proposal is economically and strategically unviable, citing the overwhelming global dominance of the United States and China. He points out that these two nations alone control nearly half of the world economy, making the success of any bloc that excludes them highly unlikely.

The Inherent Weakness of Middle Powers

Friedman emphasized that no single country likely to join such an alliance is strong enough to compete with the U.S. or China. He noted that even if half the global market were divided among eight nations,

“none of them individually, nor all of them together, constitute a sufficient market for the rest of the world.”

This suggests that even countries with GDPs exceeding a trillion dollars cannot create an effective alternative to the dominance of the major economies.

Friedman also questioned the feasibility of compensating for lost access to American and Chinese markets. He asked,

“Could South Korea compensate for the loss of the Chinese and American markets by gaining access to Germany's?”

This rhetorical question highlights the severe difficulties middle powers face in a globally competitive landscape.

Canada, for instance, exports 75% of its goods to the U.S. and 15% to China, leaving it acutely vulnerable to policy shifts in those nations. Friedman concluded by warning that

“there is nothing more dangerous than being rich and weak,”

cautioning that countries unable to influence global processes risk being sidelined. In light of these realities, the concept of a middle-power union appears increasingly dubious.

Friedman's critique underscores the complexity of the global economic architecture, where the dominance of giants like the U.S. and China presents profound challenges for smaller states. For context, middle powers like Canada, Australia, and South Korea often seek to balance their deep economic ties with these superpowers against a desire for greater strategic autonomy. Any middle-power alliance must therefore contend not only with its members' internal economic realities but also with a global political dynamic largely shaped by the interests of these two giants, which inevitably impacts their strategic positioning in international relations and trade.