Ukrainian wheat export has fallen: why prices remain stable

Ukrainian wheat export in November

According to ХВИЛЯ: The export of Ukrainian wheat in November saw a significant decline, amounting to only 1.706 million tons. Despite the drop in export volumes, prices for wheat remain stable due to low demand from importers. In October, the price for wheat was $220 per ton CPT port for grade 3, while in November it ranged from $220 to $222 per ton.

Forecasts and market trends

Forecasts for wheat prices in the coming weeks suggest that the conditional price for food wheat will remain at $220 per ton CPT port. At the same time, the conditional price for feed wheat will fluctuate between $212-214 per ton. The potential for price growth, according to the seasonal model, may reach $245-255 per ton CPT port.

It is expected that the peak activity in the wheat market will occur from January to March, which could impact further price trends and export volumes. Thus, despite the decrease in exports, the wheat market demonstrates some stability in prices.

The situation in the wheat market indicates a complex balance between supply and demand, where the decline in export volumes may be a result of global economic changes and domestic factors.

Forecasts for the coming months indicate a potential increase in market activity, which may lead to changes in export volumes and price trends. It is important to monitor the developments, as seasonal fluctuations can significantly affect the agricultural market in Ukraine.