The US-Iran Conflict: Why the War Will End with Negotiations, Not Victory

The Conflict Between the US and Iran

According to ХВИЛЯ: The conflict between the US and Iran continues to be at the center of global news, as the situation surrounding ceasefires, negotiations, and geopolitical interests takes new turns. Currently, a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran is in effect, however, negotiations between the parties have failed. American forces have imposed a blockade on Iranian ports, further complicating the situation. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime route for oil transportation, is largely closed, which may affect global oil prices.

George Friedman, an analyst and founder of Geopolitical Futures, emphasized that the war cannot end with a military victory for either side.

“This war cannot end with a victory for either side. For the US, it is too costly, and Iran faces bankruptcy. Thus, we know that the war will end. And it will end with negotiations.”

- George Friedman.

Iran's Nuclear Program and China's Influence

Furthermore, Friedman speaks about Iran's nuclear program, emphasizing that “a nuclear Iran would gain colossal power in the region, including in the Gulf States.” It is noted that Iran currently refuses to give up enriched uranium, complicating the situation.

China, as the largest buyer of Iranian resources and supplier to Iran, has significant influence over the development of the conflict. Friedman noted that

“a simple refusal by China to support Iran could be enough to make Tehran's position hopeless and force it to capitulate.”

He also believes that “if China realizes that supporting Iran costs more than cooperating with America, negotiations would move forward.

In the context of global politics, Friedman pointed to NATO's weakening, stating that 'the alliance became outdated long before this'. He believes there is no real Russian threat and that Poland, as the easternmost country in the alliance, possesses a powerful army.

This combination of military, economic, and political factors creates a complex situation surrounding the conflict between the US and Iran. Meanwhile, the defeat of Hungarian politician Viktor Orban puts Europe in an extremely awkward position, as 'the Europeans blamed Orban for everything they themselves did not do'. Now they will have to acknowledge that they did not do all this because they did not want to.

The conflict between the US and Iran remains a crucial element of global politics, as its further development can significantly affect international relations, particularly in the context of energy markets. China's role as a key player in this situation also underscores the importance of strategic alliances in modern geopolitics. Every stage of negotiations and military actions may have far-reaching consequences for stability in the region and the world as a whole.

As the conflict evolves, it's essential to understand how technological advancements, particularly drone warfare, have reshaped the dynamics of the US-Iran confrontation. Insights into this transformation reveal why an invasion is now deemed unlikely and how these developments may influence future negotiations. For a deeper exploration of this critical aspect, see how drones have changed the landscape of the US-Iran war.