Weekly Forecast for Dollar and Euro in Ukraine: Analyst Insights

Currency Exchange Rate Outlook for Ukraine

According to ХВИЛЯ: Oleksiy Kozyrev, a financial analyst at the Minfin portal, has released his currency forecast for Ukraine covering July 8–15. According to his projections, the cash dollar at banks will range between 44.20 and 45 hryvnias. At exchange offices run by financial companies, the dollar rate is expected to be between 44.25 and 44.90 hryvnias. For the euro, banks are anticipated to offer rates from 50.20 to 51.65 hryvnias, while exchange offices will likely see a range of 50.30 to 51.60 hryvnias.

The analyst identifies external factors as the main risks to the currency market, including escalation in the Middle East, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, and worsening relations among the US, NATO, and Europe. Kozyrev comments:

'At this point, I don't see any globally critical negative trend for Ukraine.' Oleksiy Kozyrev

Additionally, Kozyrev forecasts Brent crude oil prices to fluctuate between $73 and $89 per barrel, noting that the price has recently risen from $76 to nearly $79 per barrel. The euro-dollar exchange rate is expected to trade in a range of 1.138 to 1.161, while gold is projected to stay between $3,910 and $4,290 per ounce.

Ukraine's International Reserves

Ukraine's international reserves have climbed to $51.269 billion, with net reserves standing at $36.946 billion. In June, nearly $11.3 billion flowed into the government's foreign currency accounts at the National Bank of Ukraine from partner countries, including $6.8 billion from the European Union and about $4.5 billion via the World Bank. From these funds, Ukraine received $4.4 billion from the EU as the first defense tranche under the Ukraine Support program.

The National Bank of Ukraine spent nearly $5 billion in June to support the hryvnia. Between July 8 and 15, the regulator is expected to sell between $1.05 billion and $1.3 billion. Public demand for foreign currency is capped at $35–45 million per day. The spread on the dollar this week is projected to range from 15 to 30 kopiykas, while the spread on the euro will be between 20 and 50 kopiykas.

Based on analyst forecasts, Ukraine's currency exchange rates remain heavily influenced by external factors that could significantly impact economic stability. The growth in international reserves, along with continued support from international partners, indicates that financial resources are available to respond to potential threats. The situation in the foreign exchange market remains dynamic, and further rate fluctuations may reflect global economic trends and the regional political climate.

In addition to the current currency forecasts, it's essential to consider recent trends in the Ukrainian hryvnia's performance against both the dollar and euro. The latest updates from the National Bank of Ukraine indicate a strengthening of the hryvnia, which could impact future exchange rates. For a detailed analysis of these developments and their implications for the currency market, see our coverage on the NBU's updated exchange rates.