Exchange Rate of Hryvnia to Dollar and Euro in August 2025: New Analyst Forecasts

According to hvylya.net: Analysts from KIT Group have released their forecast for the exchange rate of the hryvnia for the upcoming August 2025. According to their data, the currency market in Ukraine is currently in a state of relative stability with minor fluctuations.

The biggest influence on the hryvnia exchange rate comes from external factors. In the US, inflation slowed to 2.7% annually in July, which may lead to a reduction of the Federal Reserve's rates in September. In the Eurozone, inflation remains stable at 2.0%, while real GDP is showing some positive growth.

In Ukraine, inflation also decreased to 14.1% in July, and the monthly deflation of -0.2% indicates a slight decline in prices. The National Bank of Ukraine continues to conduct currency liberalization, which contributes to market development. The EU Council has decided to provide the fourth tranche of over €3.2 billion under the Ukraine Facility.

Forecast for the US Dollar Exchange Rate:

• Short-term (1-3 weeks): 41.30-41.85 UAH/$
• Medium-term (2-3 months): 41.50-42.20 UAH/$
• Long-term (6+ months): 43.00-44.50 UAH/$

Forecast for the Euro Exchange Rate:

• Short-term (1-3 weeks): 48.20-48.90 UAH/€
• Medium-term (2-3 months): 48.60-49.80 UAH/€
• Long-term (6+ months): 49.00-51.00 UAH/€

Analysts recommend staying within the specified ranges, maintaining liquidity, and hedging risks. For private investors, it is recommended to use the dollar as an 'anchor' of the portfolio, while gradually adding euros in small portions.

Risks and Forecast

KIT Group emphasizes that their forecast is based on stable external support and the strategy of the National Bank of Ukraine. The main risks remain geopolitical factors and the financial needs of the state.