IMF Forecasts Ukraine's Path to a Stable Balance of Payments by 2030

IMF Outlines Ukraine's Financial Stability Forecast

According to Главком: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Ukraine, under its Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, can achieve a sustainable balance of payments and reduce its reliance on external support by February 2030. This goal hinges on implementing a comprehensive strategy built on four key pillars to ensure medium-term debt sustainability. The forecast comes as Ukraine continues to navigate the immense economic pressures of ongoing conflict and reconstruction needs.

According to the data, Ukraine's state debt is projected to reach $213.3 billion in 2025, a significant figure. Concurrently, EFF program estimates suggest the debt burden in 2027-2028 could exceed 130% of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The state debt grew by nearly 29% year-on-year in 2025, highlighting the severe fiscal challenges the nation faces.

Alfred Kammer, an IMF representative, emphasized that the key prerequisites for reaching these targets are: bolstering state revenue, controlling and reducing expenditures, securing substantial external financing with clear conditions, and continuing the debt restructuring process initiated by Ukraine.

The first review of the Extended Fund Facility program is scheduled for June 2026, which will provide an opportunity to assess Ukraine's progress toward these stated goals.

In a related development, Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada has begun implementing tax-related tasks set by the IMF, marking another step toward stabilizing the country's financial situation. The state of public debt and economic policy will remain a focal point for both the government and its international partners.

Systemic Reforms Deemed Essential

The IMF's projections underscore the necessity for systemic reforms in Ukraine to achieve financial stability. Critical aspects include controlling public spending and expanding the revenue base, which will require sustained effort from the government. Successful implementation of these measures could lessen Ukraine's dependence on external creditors and strengthen its economic resilience in the medium term.

As Ukraine strives for financial stability, understanding the implications of its rising public debt is crucial. Recent projections indicate that the country's debt could reach 137% of GDP, which raises concerns about long-term economic sustainability. To delve deeper into what these figures mean for Ukraine's economic future, read more about the latest debt forecasts from the IMF.