NBU on men leaving: whose migration forecast has not changed

Nikolaychuk explained that the departure of young men aged 18-22 does not have a significant impact on available labor resources and does not foresee serious consequences for the labor market.

Deputy Head of the NBU Serhiy Nikolaychuk answered questions at a press briefing regarding the impact of young men leaving for abroad on migration forecasts. The National Bank predicts that the number of Ukrainians abroad will increase by 200 thousand by 2025.

NBU Forecast and the Impact of Decisions on Free Border Crossing on the Labor Market

In July, the National Bank made a forecast regarding the migration outflow from Ukraine in 2025, and according to data at the beginning of October, 41% of Ukrainian employers noted that the decision on free border crossing for men aged 18-22 has affected job vacancies. Earlier, a German politician advocated for a ban on entry for young Ukrainians.

An analysis conducted showed that the departure of youth abroad does not have a decisive impact on migration trends in Ukraine. Even the decision regarding free border crossing for a certain group of people has a limited impact on the labor market of the country. The increase in the number of Ukrainians leaving for abroad is a fact, but it does not hinder the stable development of the economy and society as a whole.