Kremlin's Next Offensive: Which Ukrainian Regions Are in Russia's Sights

Concerns Over Russia's Strategic Aims

According to Главком: A senior Ukrainian official has warned that Russia continues to harbor ambitious plans for further territorial conquests in Ukraine. Pavlo Palisa, Deputy Head of the President's Office, stated that Moscow's objectives include seizing the entirety of the Donetsk region and establishing a buffer zone within the Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts. Palisa further indicated that Russia anticipates advances in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, with aspirations to eventually capture the key cities of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odesa. However, he assessed that Russia currently lacks the operational capacity to execute these plans within the next six months. This assessment comes amid a grinding war of attrition that has stretched for over two years.

According to Palisa's information, Russian forces occupied less than one percent of Ukraine's total territory over the course of 2025. Despite these limited gains, Russia's military casualties have been staggering, exceeding 450,000 personnel. Currently, Ukraine maintains control over 6,000 square kilometers of territory within the Donetsk region.

Potential for Negotiations with Russia

A new round of talks with Russia could potentially take place around March 4-5. In the context of these possible negotiations, Russia has signaled a willingness to withdraw its troops from Ukraine's northeastern regions, specifically from Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, as well as from parts of Dnipropetrovsk oblast. The conditions Russia is prepared to discuss include:

• Renouncing additional territorial claims in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions;
• Agreeing to a U.S.-sponsored monitoring regime for any ceasefire.

"Russia opposes the deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine and is prepared to drop its demand to limit the size of the Ukrainian army," stated Pavlo Palisa.

Palisa simultaneously emphasized that implementing any Russian plans would be an extremely complex undertaking and would not happen as quickly as Moscow might hope.

The situation in eastern Ukraine remains tense, with Russia's expansionist designs causing serious concern among Ukrainian leadership. Preparations for negotiations could represent a critical step toward a peaceful resolution, though the risks and difficulties associated with implementing any agreements remain high. Observers stress that international support and oversight will be essential to ensuring stability in the region should a diplomatic path move forward.