Russia's share in global gas trade will drop to 10%: IEA forecast

According to hvylya.net: The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released a forecast stating that Russia's share in international gas trade will never return to pre-war levels. The agency's analysis shows that Moscow will have to fight to regain its former prestige among global exporters.

According to the IEA, Russia's share in global gas trade could decrease by 10% by 2035 from the starting 25% in 2021. Meanwhile, revenues from gas sales could also fall from $120 billion a year in the 2010s to $28 billion a year in the 2030s.

The IEA's forecast indicates that Russia will not be able to offset the decrease in pipeline gas exports to Europe, and the overall export volume will decline by 7 billion cubic meters by 2035. Additionally, it is predicted that liquefied natural gas (LNG) production will peak at around 55 billion cubic meters by 2040, which is less than planned in Russia's Energy Strategy-2050.

Among the main obstacles preventing Russia from achieving its goals, the IEA points to sanctions, restrictions on access to Western technologies and financing, a shortage of ice-class tankers for LNG exports, and increased commercial barriers in the highly competitive market due to the expanding export capacities of competing countries like the USA and Qatar.

Overall, the IEA's forecast shows that Russia will face a number of challenges that could impact its position in the global gas market in the future.