Romanian Public Opinion Shifts on Ukraine War, with 44% Now Predicting Russian Victory

Shifting Romanian Views on the War in Ukraine

According to Главком: Recent sociological research in Romania reveals a significant shift in public perception of the war in Ukraine. According to the survey, 44.5% of respondents now believe Russia will emerge as the victor, while only 23.4% believe in a Ukrainian victory. Approximately 32.2% of participants were undecided or declined to answer. This marks a notable change from May 2022, when over half of surveyed Romanians predicted a Ukrainian win and only 26.1% foresaw Russian success. Romania, a NATO member bordering Ukraine, has been a key transit route for Western aid, making domestic public opinion on the conflict particularly relevant.

Opinions on the war's outcome vary across Romania's political spectrum:

• 61% of supporters for the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) expect a Russian victory.
• 38% of Social Democrat (PSD) voters believe Russia will win.
• 26% of National Liberal Party (PNL) voters forecast a Russian victory.
• 30% of Save Romania Union (USR) voters express similar sentiments.
• 50% of National Liberal Party (PNL) voters anticipate a Ukrainian victory.

Furthermore, 53.3% of surveyed Romanians believe peace requires Russia to cease aggression, withdraw troops, and return territories. In contrast, 35.4% of respondents think peace is only possible if Ukraine makes concessions.

Ukrainian Perspectives on Leadership Renewal

Separate polling data from Active Group, conducted among Ukrainians on January 31 – February 1, shows 52.1% of respondents expressed hope for renewal, and 43.6% expect benefits for the country in defense and diplomacy. The level of trust in newly appointed officials is as follows:

• Kyrylo Budanov – 43.2%
• Valerii Zaluzhnyi – 37.7%
• Volodymyr Zelenskyi – 27.4%

These sociological indicators point to evolving Romanian attitudes toward the war in Ukraine, which could subsequently influence the country's political and social climate.

The shift in Romanian society regarding the war in Ukraine may indicate waning support for Ukraine and growing sympathy for Russia, potentially impacting Romania's foreign policy stance.

It is important to consider that these sentiments may be linked to information campaigns, economic factors, and the broader political situation in the region. As a neighboring country, Romania remains a crucial partner for Ukraine, and shifts in public opinion could have long-term implications for bilateral relations.