World Bank worsens forecast for Ukraine: economy will slow down in 2026

World Bank: Development of the Ukrainian economy

The World Bank has published its updated forecast regarding the development of the Ukrainian economy for the autumn period. It is noted that expectations for the next year have been significantly lowered. The GDP growth forecast for Ukraine for the end of 2025 remains at 2%, while for the next year (2026), the forecast has been adjusted to 2.2%, which is 3.2 percentage points lower than previous forecasts.

According to the World Bank, an improvement is expected in 2027 with growth at 5%, which is 0.5% higher than the forecasts from June.

'Economic growth in Ukraine is likely to slow down to 2% in 2025, compared to 2.9% in 2024. This is due to the fact that Russia's invasion is negatively affecting investments and business. Gas imports have reached their highest level in almost two years, while infrastructure damage has limited domestic production,' the World Bank report states.

Key factors holding back economic development include weak agricultural product exports, adverse weather conditions, and the reinstatement of trade restrictions by the European Union on Ukrainian agricultural exports. During the first half of 2025, the value of Ukrainian exports decreased by nearly 5%, particularly to the European Union, which accounts for about 60% of Ukrainian exports.

The data presented indicate that the Ukrainian economy is facing a number of challenges, such as political and weather conditions, which may affect its further development. However, some positive trends, some of which are improvements in 2027, indicate the possibility of a gradual recovery of the economy.