Growing Risk of a Coup in Russia Fueled by the Ukraine War

Russia’s Internal Political Landscape Under Scrutiny

According to Главком: An assessment of Russia’s domestic political climate reveals a deepening rift between the so-called KGB and FSB clans, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, international isolation, and economic sanctions. Western outlets such as Radio Liberty, CNN, and the Financial Times have reported on the potential for a coup in Russia, driven by systemic imbalances in the power hierarchy. Both the FSB and the SVR are showing signs of irreconcilable opposition, intensifying the confrontation amid current challenges.

Roots of the Conflict and Potential Outcomes

The primary driver of this conflict is the struggle for control over the political agenda, resources, and the personal loyalty of security forces. The KGB-aligned faction, rooted in ideological conservatism and geopolitical revanchism, maintains close ties to the military-industrial complex and energy resources. Meanwhile, the FSB holds a monopoly on domestic terror and shadow financial flows, using criminal cases as a weapon to undermine the KGB elite by accusing them of treason or corruption.

With Russia cut off from external markets, key figures in President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle and their FSB rivals are likely to be sidelined. A quiet sabotage of Kremlin decisions and a series of controlled information leaks are expected, further fueling instability. Each clan is seeking separate channels for negotiations with the West or regional powers, which could lead to the fragmentation of Putin’s state apparatus into local power centers.

At the same time, Putin’s regime is entering a phase of institutional uncertainty, potentially shifting from monolithic totalitarianism to fragmented feudalism. The consequences of this process may include:

• paralysis of the executive branch,
• collapse of the stability myth,
• loss of state control.

As a result, the situation in Russia remains tense, with potentially serious implications for the country’s political landscape.

This internal conflict between the KGB and FSB points to possible shifts in Russia’s power structure, which could have far-reaching effects not only for the nation but also for international politics. With both sides seeking support outside Russia, new geopolitical realignments and a reshaping of alliances may emerge. The growing tension among elites also poses risks to regime stability, potentially leading to unexpected political developments in the future.

As the situation in Russia evolves, the fear of regime instability grows, prompting analysts to explore various scenarios that could lead to a significant shift in power dynamics. In particular, recent reports highlight the Kremlin's escalating paranoia and the potential for a breakdown of authority, which may further complicate the fragile political landscape shaped by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.