Hungary's Election Campaign Intensifies Pressure on Ukraine

Strained Relations Between Hungary and Ukraine

According to Главком: Tensions between Hungary and Ukraine continue to escalate just one month before Hungary's parliamentary elections, scheduled for April 12. The campaign has become a platform for political attacks, notably from incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused Orbán of attempting to build his campaign on hatred towards Ukraine and Ukrainians. Zelenskyy stated that such rhetoric forms the foundation of Orbán's election strategy, pointing to his antipathy towards the EU and personally towards Ursula von der Leyen. This political friction occurs within the broader context of Orbán's long-standing disputes with EU institutions over rule-of-law and foreign policy issues.

A March 11 poll by the 21 Kutatokozpont company indicates the opposition leads the ruling 'Fidesz' party by 14 points, with 53% support against the government's 39%. The 'Fidesz' party currently holds 135 seats in Hungary's 199-seat parliament. On March 10, the parliament adopted a resolution, passed by 142 deputies, calling for Ukraine not to be granted EU membership. Furthermore, Hungary and Slovakia have jointly blocked the approval of the EU's 20th sanctions package against Russia and a 90-billion-euro funding allocation for Ukraine for 2026-2027.

The Druzhba Pipeline and Other Incidents

Regarding the 'Druzhba' oil pipeline, oil supplies were halted on January 27. President Zelenskyy reported that repairs would take approximately 'a month to a month and a half.' On March 10, Hungary's Ministry of Energy announced it was sending a four-person group to Ukraine for negotiations concerning 'Druzhba.'

In a separate incident, Hungarian authorities detained two armored cash-in-transit vehicles carrying cash and gold bullion for Ukraine's 'Oschadbank.' Seven security guards were handed over to Ukraine, but the vans containing the valuables remain in Hungary. It is known that a disinformation campaign favoring Viktor Orbán was developed by an agency linked to the Kremlin. The Hungarian opposition has accused Orbán of receiving assistance from Russia's GRU military intelligence agency.

Viktor Orbán, who served as Hungary's Prime Minister from 1998 to 2002, stated: 'We are interested not in weakening, but in strengthening Ukraine, so that there will always be something – it can be called Ukraine – between Russia and Hungary.'

However, according to Dmytro Tkach, Zelenskyy's comments about Orbán only benefit the Hungarian leader. He noted: 'Well, if Zelenskyy asked me, I would say it's not worth it, of course.' Georgiy Tykhyy added that the group sent from Hungary to Ukraine lacks official status, making it incorrect to refer to them as a 'delegation.'

Thus, the situation between Hungary and Ukraine remains complex, with significant political and economic implications against the backdrop of the approaching elections.

This crisis underscores how Hungary's domestic political climate can shape its foreign policy, particularly towards Ukraine. With elections looming, Orbán's rhetoric may deepen animosity towards Ukraine, complicating bilateral cooperation. The heightened tensions could also impact regional security and economic stability. A key consideration is that various political forces within Hungary may hold differing views on relations with Ukraine, potentially leading to future shifts in foreign policy.