Ukraine Prepares for Post-Putin Scenarios: Stagnation into Stalinism or State Collapse

Assessing Russia’s Situation

According to Главком: The author examines the low probability of internal transformation in Russia-ruling out public awakening, uprisings, coups, or military revolts-and outlines two potential futures. The first scenario involves tightened repression, potentially pushing the regime toward Stalinist-style control. The second envisions a relaxation of repression after Vladimir Putin’s death, which could trigger a collapse similar to the events of 1991.

Key Takeaways from the Analysis

To avoid false hopes about Russia’s trajectory, the author highlights several critical points:

• Russian society remains fragmented and incapable of collective action.
• Putin’s inner circle consists solely of his most trusted allies, who directly profit from the war.
• The Russian military is currently exhausted and kept under strict surveillance by the security services.

The analysis also draws on historical parallels, such as the 1953 power triangle between the party apparatus, state security, and the armed forces.

Meanwhile, the author considers possible paths forward:

• A tightening of control, moving toward Stalinization and a Juche-style isolation.
• A cautious easing of repression after Putin, with normalization attempts overseen by security agencies.

The author stresses that rapid change is unlikely: there will be no 'hunger or fuel riots,' no coup, and no military uprising.

In conclusion, the analysis suggests that no major internal shifts should be expected in Russia over the coming years, and the range of possible developments remains narrow.

This assessment underscores the resilience of Russia’s current regime, making it difficult to forecast meaningful change. The situation remains tense, and domestic factors show no signs of readiness for large-scale social protests or political upheaval. Given the broader global context and the impact of international politics, monitoring developments in Russia is crucial, as even minor shifts among elites could significantly affect regional stability.

As the analysis highlights the potential for intensified repression in Russia, it's essential to consider the underlying factors contributing to public discontent. Recent reports indicate that economic challenges and war fatigue are increasingly fueling dissatisfaction among the populace. Understanding these dynamics could provide further insight into the stability of the current regime and the likelihood of any significant changes in the near future.