McFaul: What provoked Russia’s war against Ukraine was Ukrainian democracy, not NATO

Michael McFaul on NATO enlargement and the challenge Ukraine posed to Moscow

According to ХВИЛЯ: Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul has pushed back against the widely repeated claim that NATO’s eastward expansion triggered Moscow’s war on Ukraine. Speaking on the Kyiv Independent’s YouTube channel, he argued that the real danger to Vladimir Putin’s system is Ukraine’s democratic evolution. In his view, Ukrainians who are building civil society and drawing closer to the West represent a far greater threat to the Kremlin than any military alliance.

McFaul also observed that when Finland and Sweden joined NATO, Russia did not retaliate. Putin himself said Moscow had no quarrel with those countries and did not regard their membership as a direct danger. Even as the NATO-Russia border grew by 1,300 kilometers, the Kremlin showed no aggressive response.

What the war’s length reveals about Putin’s fears

It is also worth noting that Russia has now been fighting Ukraine for a fourth year, despite the fact that Ukraine is not a NATO member. That reality reinforces McFaul’s argument: the threat to Putin’s rule lies not in the expansion of a military bloc, but in Ukraine’s successful democratic transformation.

McFaul’s assessment could shift how the war in Ukraine is explained, directing attention to internal developments in the country rather than Western defense alliances. Kyiv Independent

This emphasis underscores that Ukrainian democracy may worry the Kremlin more than NATO enlargement does-something that could influence both Ukraine’s strategy and the way Western partners continue to support its independence and sovereignty.

As McFaul highlights the internal factors driving the conflict, it's essential to consider how the Kremlin's miscalculations have influenced the war's trajectory. Analyzing the implications of these strategic errors sheds light on the broader context of Russia's actions. For further insights on this dynamic, see how the Kremlin underestimated Western resolve and the consequences that followed.