The Wheat Market Outlook in Ukraine
A unique combination of domestic and global factors in 2026 could prevent production costs for flour from rising in Ukraine. Ample domestic grain supplies and favorable international market conditions are likely to keep purchase prices low, which would benefit Ukrainian flour producers and bakeries. This comes as the global agricultural sector continues to adjust to disruptions caused by recent geopolitical events.
Data shows Ukraine harvested 22.5 million tons of wheat in 2025. Combined with existing stockpiles, the total wheat resource reached 25 million tons. During the first half of the 2025/26 season, 8 million tons of wheat were exported from Ukraine. By the end of this season, the country could accumulate a surplus of 8-10 million tons of wheat, creating favorable conditions for stable flour prices.
Forecasts and Opportunities for Producers
Furthermore, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts a record global wheat harvest of 819 million tons. High yields are expected in the European Union, Canada, Australia, and Argentina, which will also influence the overall market balance. The 2025 harvest wheat possesses high-quality characteristics, potentially increasing its competitiveness on the world market.
“A difficult situation for traders becomes a window of opportunity for those who create a product with added value.”
Serhii Sakirkin
The situation in both the Ukrainian and global wheat markets points to the potential for flour price stabilization, a crucial factor for the country's food security. The wheat surplus and favorable global conditions could lay the groundwork for increased competitiveness among Ukrainian producers, which in turn may positively impact their economic activity. Amidst global changes, Ukrainian producers have a chance to adapt and find new opportunities for development.