France Could Elect a Far-Right President for the First Time Since 1944

France's 2027 Presidential Election

According to ХВИЛЯ: France stands on the brink of a political milestone: the potential election of a far-right president in April 2027, a scenario not seen since 1944. This prospect has raised alarms across Europe, given the risks it poses to the European Union and Ukraine, as well as the shifting positions of key political figures. Polls indicate that the National Rally (RN) party holds a commanding lead, with its leader, Jordan Bardella, projected to secure around 35-38% of the vote in the first round. No other candidate currently exceeds approximately 17% support.

Emmanuel Macron is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term due to term limits. Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen, a former far-right candidate, has been found by a court to have been involved in the misuse of EU funds, resulting in a five-year ban from running for office. The final verdict in Le Pen's case is expected on July 7.

Potential Consequences for Europe

France, as the fifth-largest economy in the Western world, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, and a nuclear power, is a founding member of the EU. If the far-right wins, an RN-led government could:

• block further aid to Ukraine;
• attempt to lift sanctions against the Russian Federation;
• oppose Ukraine's accession to the EU.

It is worth noting that while the RN party has condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it has consistently obstructed assistance to Kyiv.

“France has the power to stall decision-making across the entire EU,” says Mujtaba Rahman.

Rahman argues that even in the best-case scenario, an RN victory would plunge France and Europe into five years of chaos and paralysis. 'The continent cannot afford this risk,' he adds.

Supporters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a key opponent of the far-right, have threatened to reject any far-right victory and have promised five rounds of protests next year. In light of these developments, 2027 could become for France what 2016 was for the US and the UK-the year of Brexit and Donald Trump's election. The country remains on edge as the election approaches, with its outcome set to reshape European politics.

The 2027 election could prove decisive for France's future and its role within the European Union. A far-right victory would likely trigger radical shifts in foreign policy, particularly regarding support for Ukraine and relations with Russia. Experts warn that such changes could have lasting effects on Europe's stability, given France's traditional influence in EU decision-making and on the global stage.