Belarusian Leader Signs Decree Calling Up Reserve Officers: How Real Is the Threat to Ukraine?

Assessing the Threat from Belarus

According to Главком: Military analyst Vladyslav Seleznyov, a former spokesperson for Ukraine’s General Staff, shared his assessment of risks emanating from Belarus in an interview with Glavcom. He argues that the current size of the Belarusian army, combined with Russian forces stationed in the country, is insufficient to pose a tactical-level danger to Ukraine. Still, Seleznyov points to enemy preparations, notably increased activity by Belarusian troops near the border.

Since 2022, Ukraine has fortified areas in the Volyn, Rivne, Zhytomyr, and Kyiv regions, Seleznyov notes. He also stresses that given Minsk’s current economic struggles, the last thing it needs is further destruction-especially of budget-generating enterprises located close to the Ukrainian border.

'We would certainly strike those targets to eliminate Belarus’s offensive capability if it launched aggression against our territory,' Seleznyov stated.

Mobilization Steps and Emerging Dangers

On April 17, Alexander Lukashenko signed a decree ordering the conscription of reserve officers who never completed mandatory military service but received training at civilian university military departments. Simultaneously, Lukashenko threatened NATO countries and Ukraine with the potential use of the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also reported heightened Belarusian military activity near the border, including road construction and the setup of artillery positions. Kyiv has warned Minsk that it stands ready to defend its territory. Commenting on the situation, Seleznyov noted that the Russian army harbors unrealistic plans for occupying Donetsk region.

'Will Lukashenko cave to Kremlin demands? He is, de facto, the champion among former CIS leaders when it comes to maneuvering,' the expert added.

Seleznyov further emphasized that Lukashenko, while bargaining for his own future and power, enjoys support from China and has developed serious connections with U.S. leadership. 'The world is utterly rational and often cynical. Against this backdrop, Western politicians, eager to pry Belarus away from Russia, will be willing to strike certain compromises with Lukashenko,' he said. The analyst believes the Belarusian dictator’s statements are not entirely baseless, as he seeks backing to protect himself from his longtime ally, Vladimir Putin.

The situation along the Belarus-Ukraine border remains tense, given the mobilization measures undertaken by Minsk and the activity of Belarusian troops in frontier areas. Lukashenko’s decrees suggest possible preparations for military action, raising concerns in Ukraine. Such moves could have serious consequences not only for bilateral relations but also for regional stability as a whole.

As tensions escalate, recent intelligence reports suggest that Russia is preparing Belarus for a potential border escalation. This development underscores the urgency of monitoring military activities in the region, particularly in light of Lukashenko's recent mobilization orders and the strategic implications for Ukraine's defense posture.