The National Bank predicted when Ukrainian refugees will begin to return home

200 thousand people leave Ukraine annually

According to glavcom.ua: Over the course of two years, 400 thousand people will leave Ukraine. Meanwhile, a gradual return of migrants is expected only in 2027. This was reported by 'Glavcom' referencing the July report of the National Bank.

In the first half of 2025, the number of Ukrainian migrants increased by 60 thousand people. This is less than in the first half of 2024 when more than 200 thousand people left the country. Previously, the UN reported that as of July 1, 2025, there are 5.6 million Ukrainians outside of Ukraine.

The European Union extended protection for Ukrainian refugees

The European Union extended temporary protection for Ukrainian refugees until March 2027. After that, EU countries must determine new residency or return regimes for Ukrainians. Decisions will depend on the internal policies of the countries, integration of migrants, job availability, tax payments, or children's education. The NBU predicts that the extension of status will hinder the return of citizens in the medium term.

The National Bank believes that in 2025 and 2026, 200 thousand people will leave Ukraine annually. At the same time, the return of approximately 100 thousand Ukrainians is expected only in 2027. It is noted that some Ukrainians are adapting to life abroad and are losing their residency status in Ukraine. This reduces the chances of mass return in the short term.

Where our national identity has flown from and where it is headed is a question that remains open in the space of migration flows. Nevertheless, changes in legislation and internal policies of the EU may affect the future migration of Ukrainians and their return to their homeland.