NBU: Inflation will fall below 10% by the end of the year, while salaries continue to grow

The National Bank of Ukraine has published its conclusions regarding the state of the economy in wartime in its analytical review 'Simply about the Economy'.

According to the NBU's analysis, the Ukrainian economy is gradually recovering despite the wartime challenges. In the first half of this year, the country's real GDP grew by almost 1% each quarter. Significant support comes from international cooperation - it is expected that Ukraine will receive a record amount of foreign aid totaling 54 billion dollars.

The decrease in inflation meets expectations

Inflationary processes are developing according to forecasts. In June, the inflation rate was 14.3% annualized, and in July it decreased to 14.1%. The NBU projects further reduction of this indicator to less than 10% by the end of the year, less than 7% in the next year, and a return to the target level of 5% by 2027.

The stability of the hryvnia exchange rate

The National Bank actively supports the stability of the currency market, preventing significant fluctuations in the hryvnia exchange rate. The central bank acts to restrain demand for foreign currency, promoting the demand of Ukrainians for hryvnia savings.

Hryvnia deposits as protection against inflation

To protect deposits from inflation, the NBU maintains the discount rate at 15.5%, which allows banks to offer profitable hryvnia deposits. The annual growth rate of deposits ranges from 13-16%, providing a real return of 10-12% after taxation.

According to the NBU's estimates, the pace of economic recovery will further depend on the circumstances of the war. If the tense situation continues, real GDP growth will amount to 2-3% per year.

The National Bank of Ukraine emphasized the gradual recovery of the Ukrainian economy in wartime in its analytical review, noting that the main factors for successful development are international support, inflation stabilization, currency market stability, and attractive investment conditions to protect against inflation.